Cincinnati Basketball SG/SF/PF Player Grades
The wings and guards on the '23-'24 Cincinnati Bearcats were definitely the most impressive group on the team. The consistency wasn't there for the entire year but it was refreshing to see John Newman's emergence as an elite defender, Simas Lukosius' clutch shots, and Dan Skillings Year 2 Leap.
The player grades below are based on preseason perception and not actual performance, so just because one guy got an A and the other got a C+ doesn't necessarily mean I think they had a better season.
JOHN NEWMAN: A
Pause for a moment and take yourself back to last spring. There were rumors swirling that John Newman could forgo his final year of eligibility and medically retire from basketball. There were debates that he should be "forced out" so Cincinnati could have more scholarship flexibility. There were questions regarding if he was good enough to play on a Big 12 team.
John Newman responded with the best season of his career. Medical Issues? Newman played over 1000 minutes for the first time in his career. Scholarship flexibility? Cincinnati fans are now hoping someone can step up and be that 3&D John Newman next season. Good enough to play in the Big 12? Newman was named to the Big 12 All-Defensive Team.
While Newman wasn't an elite offensive player he did shoot 48.% from the field and 35.1% from 3, both career highs. He was the best non big finisher on the Bearcats team by a mile (Skillings was 2nd highest among our top 8 players at 60.2%) with a 67.6% clip at the rim which is in the 84th percentile. Not only did he make the rim attempts but he also got there at high volume -- nearly 3 attempts per game which is in the 82nd percentile.
Graphic by CBB Analytics
It wasn't a perfect season though. Newman picked up a rib injury in the Bearcats' season shifting loss at West Virginia. Rib injuries are brutal and linger -- this one was no different. The season would have looked much different if that injury didn't happen, that loss at West Virginia doesn't happen with Newman on the court.
John Newman's Injury Splits by The Bearcat Bunch
The graphic above (🚨 Small sample size alert🚨) shows what a rib injury can do to a physical player. 2PT FG% and 3PT FG% both declined, but to me the other numbers are much more meaningful. Cincinnati's best rim attacker saw a 30% decline in 2PT field goal attempts and a massive 65% decline in FT attempts. Newman wasn't able to continue his physical play on defense or around the rim -- he settled for a 42% increase in 3PT volume. There was also a 44% decrease in steals.
It's a shame that Newman suffered this injury because he was on pace to really finish his career out on an awesome note. Newman did hit the 1,000 point mark in a win vs Bradley in the NIT, but it was a bittersweet moment knowing he could've finished his career in the NCAA Tournament. The question now is who will step into Newman's role next season and take on the challenge of guarding the opponents best perimeter player.
DAN SKILLINGS: A-
I'm not gonna sit here and pretend like Cincinnati fans didn't see Skillings improvement coming, but it certainly didn't happen how we thought it would. We all saw his talent as a true freshman last season, but also saw some early season struggles from him this season. The mistakes were loud. It was fair for fans to doubt his production in early January but Skillings responded to those doubts with a very strong Big 12 campaign. A young player getting better within a season against even better competition is a great sign for things to come.
Skillings had nearly identical metrics OOC and in the Big 12, but in conference he did it with an increased role. The jump from our weak OOC to the Big 12 is massive and the sophomore responded with better performance over more minutes. He showed an ability to get to the rim at will, finishing in the 98th percentile with 4.9 rim attempts per game. Below you can see the 60.2% clip at the rim was average nationwide, but it was second best amongst non bigs on the Cincy roster.
Graphic by CBB Analytics
Skillings had a great season from the corners -- shooting 40.8% on 49 attempts. The other stuff wasn't as pretty. The struggles are apparent in the graphic above, he had a rough shooting season in general. Skillings is raw so this was expected, but it also gives him a clear path to stardom. Skillings can go supernova his junior season if he takes strides at the rim and from long range. Getting to the rim at that clip while dealing with the spacing issues from 2 big lineups is truly impressive.
Dan is a true enigma. The mistakes are loud which makes him look insecure with the ball, but our minds were playing tricks on us -- Skillings was the most secure player on the team and the team's turnover % was down while he was on the court.
On the great side? Skillings was +4.3 in CBB Analytics Net Rating which was second best on the team behind Simas Lukosius. Dan also had a 9.7 OReb%, which was good for 243rd in the country. But the craziest graphic/stat of them all is his impact on Cincinnati's rebounding when he is on the floor.
Cincinnati's OR% with Skillings on/off the floor by CBB Analytics
The main reason I gave Skillings an A- instead of something lower is because he increased his role and did a really good job at it in the best conference in basketball. It wasn't super pretty, but his impact on this Bearcats team is undeniable. Skillings has a chance to be an absolute star.
SIMAS LUKOSIUS: B+
Simas didn't necessarily hit the ground running in Clifton but by the end of the season solidified himself as the big shot closer on the team. Lukosius' late game heroics lead the Bearcats to wins over Kansas State, UCF, Texas Tech and San Francisco. Simas getting hit by a car in November slowed down his integration into the team and is a huge reason why he didn't peak until late. He played over 30mpg just once in the OOC portion of the schedule compared to the 21 times after conference play started.
But when Simas got it going there was no stopping him. From February on (16 games) Lukosius shot 42% from 3 point range on an absurd 8.4 attempts per game. Before that (19 games)? 33% on 5.2 attempts. The team was significantly better at offense with Simas on the floor as well ⤵️
Graphic by CBB Analytics
Going forward I think it's safe to say Simas will have very similar numbers next season but with more consistency throughout the entire season. His minutes may take a 5-10% decline because of the added depth but his impact could land him on a All Big 12 team. The question is can Simas take a leap to stardom, because his first year at Cincinnati was nearly identical to his last season at Butler.
Screenshot from ESPN
JOSH REED: C
I'm not going to lie, I didn't expect Josh Reed to play much at all in conference play this season. This is a tough one to grade because while Reed really cost us offensively, he also gave Wes Miller a Get Out Of Jail Free Card in Big 12 play. Jail? The two big lineups. We'll talk more about that in the upcoming Big Man Grades. The negative? Cincinnati's ORtg was -4.6 with Reed on the court. The positive? Opponents eFG% was 2.6% lower when he was on the court. While I do think his defense is good, it feels like some Cincy fans overrate it -- to me Reed was just a better fit than Ody, Jamille, or Vik and that made us better defensively. He was a band aid for the bad double big lineups. Reed shot 36% from the field and 31% from 3, which is even worse than it sounds considering the open looks teams were giving him. He didn't fully solve our spacing issues on offense, but he did give a boost to the defense in a crucial part of the season.
Going forward I expect Josh to be a back end of the rotation player who can fill in as needed. He was a fine role player this past season and can be an even better one if he figures out his 3 ball.
CJ FREDRICK: C-
CJ came to Cincinnati with an injury warning label and lived right up to that with a frustrating senior year campaign. The local product did shoot 43% from long range, but only played 41 minutes in Big 12 play. The shining moments of his season were the 3+ 3PT efforts vs Bryant, FGCU, Detroit Mercy, UIC and Georgia Tech.
Fredrick does have a year of eligibility remaining if he chooses to use it, but as of today his Bearcats' career has been frustrating. It's very easy to visualize Fredrick playing one more season and having a positive impact on a really good Bearcats' team, but it feels like we are at the point where his load should be managed throughout the entire season.
The Bearcats wings this past season really did a great job keeping this team afloat and in contention, especially considering the growing pains in the PG room and the disaster that was our backup big men. Skillings, Newman and Simas elevated our team and all met or outperformed expectations.
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