Big 12 BASKETBALL PREDICTIONS
The best conference in basketball just got bigger as BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida join the fold. My 2023-2024 Big 12 Basketball predictions, in tiers:
Tier 1 - The Kansas Tier
1 Kansas
The reigning Big 12 Champion Jayhawks will have a new look, but Bill Self has proven there is more than one way to reload. Kansas loses lottery pick Gradey Dick and All-American Jalen Wilson but brings in the biggest fish in the portal pool — All-American center Hunter Dickinson. Towson transfer Nick Timberlake joins Dickinson amongst a few other secondary additions to give Kansas a completely new look. Going from a Jalen Wilson/Ernest Udeh rotation at the 5 to Hunter Dickinson and Parker Braun is about as big of a stylistic change as a team can have, but returning wings KJ Adams Jr. and Kevin McCullar Jr. will help ease that transition. PG Dajuan Harris Jr. is even more important in this regard as he is one of the most experienced guards in the Big 12. The Jayhawks have won 17 of the last 20 Big 12 regular season titles and are #1 until somebody unseats them.
Tier 2 - The Other Contenders ft. HOF Coaches
2 Houston
Houston joins the Big 12 while losing two stars to the NBA: Jarace Walker and Marcus Sasser. Tramon Mark is also an outgoing to Arkansas, but Sampson and the Cougars should still transition well in year 1. Houston has their standard collection of 6’7+ wings and bigs who can defend and rebound. Joining them is star guard LJ Cryer, who has had plenty of Big 12 experience with Baylor. Guard Damian Dunn joins Sampson from Temple to round out their roster. Guards Jamal Shead, LJ Cryer, Damian Dunn, and big man J’Wan Roberts bring an enormous amount of experience to the roster. Roberts is poised for a breakout season and was built in a lab to play Houston basketball as he is top 100 in KenPom for offensive rating, eFG%, true shooting %, offensive rebound %, and block %. Houston will be hoping for a breakout year from sophomore guard Terrance Arceneaux. Kelvin Sampson and Big 12 basketball are known for the same things: defense, physicality and rebounding — I get the feeling that the Cougars will look the part of an elite Big 12 team instantly.
3 Baylor
Have you noticed a trend here? The top 3 teams are the top 3 coaches in the Big 12 — and maybe even the country. The Bears lose three 15ppg scorers: Adam Flagler, Keyonte George and LJ Cryer, but they do return talented wing Jalen Bridges and add transfer guards RayJ Dennis and Jayden Nunn. Scott Drew landed 5 star freshman wing Ja’Kobe Walter who is a projected one and done lottery pick. Drew’s 2023 team finished 107th in defense — his worst since 2009. While Baylor’s defense shouldn’t jump back up to being elite it should be much improved from last season’s undersized 3 guard lineup. A lineup of RayJ Dennis, Jayden Nunn, Ja’Kobe Walter, Jalen Bridges and Yves Missi is a much more modern lineup that won’t get picked on by bigger Big 12 guards. While Baylor has similar upside of Kansas and Houston, they do have a much lower floor as they only get one H&H with a bottom tier team — BYU. In my eyes the Bears have the toughest in conference schedule as they only get to face WVU, Cincy, Oklahoma, UCF and Oklahoma State once each.
Tier 3 - March Madness Probables
4 TCU
Jamie Dixon looks to follow up back to back tournament appearances with maybe his best TCU team yet. TCU returns 5 rotation players including Emanuel Miller and added big named portal players like Jameer Nelson Jr., Avery Anderson III, Ernest Udeh Jr., and Trevian Tennyson. TCU, like Houston, has an assortment of 6’7+ wings and bigs who will keep them in most games and should help guys like Jameer Nelson Jr. flourish. TCU’s depth and experience are why I have them top of tier 3.
5 Texas
Rodney Terry’s Longhorns have top 4 talent in the conference but there are enough questions about transfer Kadin Shedrick and Dylan Disu’s health that I dropped them below TCU. Max Abmas joins the Longhorns from Oral Roberts to make up one of the best backcourts in the country with Tyrese Hunter — but there are serious size questions as both guards are 6’0. If Texas does outperform this it’ll be because of Dillon Mitchell, Kadin Shedrick and Dylan Disu’s defense giving the platform for the undersized guards to focus their efforts on offense.
6 Iowa St.
TJ Otzelberger enters his third season at Iowa State hoping to turn around his offensive woes. Iowa State made the tournament his first two seasons despite being ranked 171st and 114th in offense on KenPom. A top 10 defense in both seasons carried the Cyclones, but now Otzelberger has a 5 star freshman wing Omaha Biliew and a promising returning point guard in sophomore Tamin Lipsey. Iowa State also added three shooters in the portal: Jackson Paveletzke, Curtis Jones, and Keshon Gilbert. The Cyclones should end up in the middle of the Big 12 again, but maybe with a little more upside with an improved offense and returning ball handler. Maybe the floor isn’t as safe as I think it is with Jaren Holmes, Gabe Kalscheur, Sun Osunniyi, Caleb Grill and Aljaz Kunc all outgoing, but I trust Otzelberger at this point to just put out an elite defense every single season.
7 Kansas St.
Jerome Tang and Kansas State took the Big 12 by storm last year but it will be hard to replace Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. 5’10 Tylor Perry appears to be a like for like replacement with Nowell, but nothing is guaranteed with undersized guards in a conference that has so many elite guard defenders. The Wildcats also added big wing Arthur Kaluma from Creighton and another undersized guard in 6’0 Ques Glover from Samford. While Kansas State does have a favorable conference schedule with 3 home and homes vs bottom tier teams (WVU, BYU, OSU) I still think their lack of size at the guard spot will get to them this season. Big man Nae’Qwan Tomlin is also suspended indefinitely to start the season, which seems kind of important considering Kansas State’s front court is unproven past him.
Tier 4 - The Bubble
8 Texas Tech
Grant McCasland finally made his big leap from UNT to Texas Tech after putting up an incredible 135-65 record for the Mean Green. McCasland is well known for his defensive style and is somewhat familiar with the league as he is a member of the successful Scott Drew coaching tree. Texas Tech immediately raided the transfer portal and brought in Chance McMillan, Kyeron Lindsay, Devon Cambridge, Warren Washington, Darrion Williams and Big 12 guard Joe Toussaint. Nobody on that list really stands out, but they are a bunch of puzzle pieces for the rookie coach — his biggest pull was keeping the super talented guard Pop Isaacs in Lubbock. Darrion Williams, while slightly undersized as a 6’6 PF, lead Nevada to a massive 50 point jump in KenPom as a freshman.
9 BYU
BYU enters the Big 12 after Mark Pope’s worst season as the Cougars head coach with a 77 spot in KenPom. BYU was 290th in D1 experience last year and 230th in continuity but they return almost all of their players, which can be a good or bad thing. I’m going to trust Pope and say it’s a good thing, especially since he added two impact transfers in 6’11 Charlotte big man Aly Khalifa and 6’4 UC Irvine guard Dawson Baker. Both were impact mid major players who should compliment the returning BYU players well. BYU has serious size as well, with only one player below 6’4 on the roster and multiple options over 6’10. It feels like BYU should be lower but I’m going to trust the proven Mark Pope and the huge BYU home court advantage.
10 Oklahoma St.
It might be do or die time for Mike Boynton in Stillwater as he enters his 7th season for the Cowboys. Landing ECU guard Javon Small in the portal has set him up with a tournament level backcourt that includes Bryce Thompson. The questions start in the front court: how will the Cowboys replace Moussa Cisse and Kalib Boone? Isaiah Miranda from NC State and Mike Marsh from Jacksonville seem to be the guys, but it’s hard to see them being anything more than serviceable.
11 Oklahoma
Porter Moser’s Oklahoma career has not gotten off to the start that people expected it to be after his perennial success at Loyola and it looks to be continuing in that trajectory this season. Moser has an enticing backcourt that features 16PPG scorer Gavin McCollum and sophomore Milos Uzan, but it won’t be enough to make up for the big man addition of John Hugley IV. Hugley is a transfer from Pittsburgh who saw his former team climb 20 spots in KenPom and make a run in March after he left the team midseason. He’ll put up some box score stats but his effort, rebounding, and defense leave much to be desired in a conference like the Big 12. Oklahoma lacks a clear identity and not enough exciting new pieces to envision anything changing this season.
12 Cincinnati
Wes Miller’s bold move to focus more on talent than team fit could backfire as transfers Jamille Reynolds and Aziz Bandaogo have yet to have their waivers approved. There is not a point guard on the roster who has dribbled a basketball at the D1 level, but Day Day Thomas and freshman Jizzle James both fit the mold of what Miller wants in a PG — it’s just a huge risk entering Big 12 play. A twin towers approach to the 4 and 5 spot could leave this roster in a really tough spot if neither waiver is approved as back of rotation players like Ody Oguama would be expected to play a lot at the 4. Trying to juggle a 4/5 rotation of Viktor Lakhin, Ody Oguama, and Sage Tolentino would be a nightmare scenario that newcomers CJ Fredrick and Simas Lukosius couldn’t save. In addition to that there is no clear small ball 4 option, although Simas Lukosius or Daniel Skillings could end up being that guy. If Jamille Reynolds and Bandaogo get their waivers I move Cincinnati up to 8th ahead of Texas Tech and clearly in the bubble picture. If it’s just Aziz getting a waiver I have Cincinnati 8th as well, if it’s just Jamille Reynolds then I have Cincinnati 9th. One or more of those rim protecting bigs allows Cincinnati to go twin towers approach or small ball and not have to worry about depth or size. Cincinnati also has a favorable conference schedule with 3 home and homes with other bottom tier teams: UCF, BYU and Oklahoma.
Tier 6 - The Graveyard
13 West Virginia
West Virginia promoted longtime Huggins assistant Josh Eilert in the summer leaving him in a really tough spot. The Mountaineers have some talent on their roster with Jesse Edwards, Kerr Kris, Quinn Slazinski and RaeQuan Battle but there is so much drama off of the court. Eilert’s squad has similar issues to Cincinnati: Who can play 4, who can play PG, and are we gonna get these waivers? Slazinski answers the first question, but he has proven to be unreliable at Iona and UL. Kriisa has no direct backup at PG that has played college basketball before, and West Virginia is also awaiting rulings on RaeQuan Battle and Noah Farrakhan’s waivers. The talent is there for Eilert to have a surprising rookie campaign, but the downside feels much more realistic at this point.
14 UCF
Johnny Dawkins is very likely the worst coach in the Big 12 (pending Eilert results) and UCF has far and away the biggest talent gap to figure out in the leap to the Big 12 after losing key contributors Taylor Hendricks, CJ Kelly and Ithiel Horton. CJ Walker is a notable returning talent but remains unproven. 6 of the 7 transfers incoming are from mid majors and the lone power transfer is 7PPG guard Demarr Langford Jr. from Boston College.
