Big 12 football recap & a reason for bearcat football optimism
Now that portal season has begun it’s time to revisit the Bearcat Bunch’s pre-season predictions article and see what we learned in our first year in the Big 12 Conference
Where I Was Wrong:
Iowa State (picked 14th, finished 5th) - Turns out Matt Campbell is still a good coach, the guy just refuses to have back to back bad seasons. I picked Iowa State 14th and leaned in too much on the offseason gambling suspensions/drama around that program. The Cyclones finished 5th in the Big 12 and feasted on the bottom half of the league— their only losses came against Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. RS FR Rocco Becht had a breakout 20 TD/8 Int season behind a stellar ISU line and the Cyclones complemented that with one of the best defenses in the Big 12.
West Virginia (picked 13th, finished 4th) - Holgorsen and Neal Brown were my “most likely to be fired” candidates and Neal Brown responded with a hell of a campaign to save his job — the Mountaineers went 6-3 in conference (after a slow OOC!) to finish 4th in the Big 12. WVU was even better than their league record —they lost on a crazy Hail Mary at Houston and would’ve finished tied for 2nd in the Big 12 if that didn’t happen. Much like Iowa State, their success was behind unexpected QB play, a strong OL, and a solid defense. WVU settled on junior Garrett Greene and he ended up rushing for over 700 yards while throwing for 2,178 and 15 TD/4 Int.
Baylor (picked 5th, finished 13th) - I picked the Bears 5th pre-season, assuming they would handle one of the easier in conference schedules, but Aranda and co. had their second straight dud of a season after their Sugar Bowl win in 2021. Baylor’s defense and offensive line were so awful that the Bears finished 13th in the Big 12. Aranda now enters the 2024 season firmly in the Big 12 coaches hot seat conversation after finishing 2-7 for the second time in his career.
Cincinnati (picked 8th, finished 14th) - I picked Cincy to be the best Big 12 newcomer, but the Bearcats finished alone in last thanks to awful red zone production early in the season and an even worse defense to finish the season. The defense not being good is what surprised me most about the Bearcats this season as DC Bryan Brown came in with some hype and multiple Broyles Award nominations— but the lack of pass rushers and zero production from DBs lead the Bearcats immediately to the bottom of the league.
Kansas (picked 10th, finished 8th) - It was already accepted but now set in stone — Lance Leipold is a great coach. I doubted Kansas’ depth past their top level talent and it appears that they had elite coaching and quality Big 12 depth. I picked Kansas 10th and they comfortably finished 8-4 overall and 8th in the Big 12. If Daniels didn’t get hurt it’s safe to assume the Jayhawks would’ve at least also beaten Texas Tech — I’d even go as far to say that Kansas would’ve been the clear #3 this season if Daniels didn’t get hurt. In the new iteration of the Big 12 the Jayhawks could be perennial contenders, one question looms: how long will the Jayhawks be able to hold onto Leipold?
Where I Was Right:
The Top 4 - My top 4 of OU, Texas, OSU and Kansas State all finished in the top 5. Texas and Oklahoma clearly stood out as the best teams, while Oklahoma State feasted on a joke of a schedule. Kansas State had an up and down season but finished right around where they were expected.
Texas Tech (picked 6th, finished 7th)- The Red Raiders were a super hot name pre-season, some even saying they were a sleeper Big 12 title contender. In terms of general perception they had the biggest let down season of anyone in the Big 12, but still found a way to finish 5-4 after facing Kansas’ third string QB late in the season.
BYU and Houston (picked 11th and 12th, finished 11 and 12th) - Both of these teams were predictably awful and Holgorsen ended up losing his job because of it. BYU got obliterated on the road but scavenged a couple home wins in elevation.
Reasons for optimism heading into 2024?
The 2024 Big 12 landscape has zero blue bloods in it, and the four additions of Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah feel like perfect fits for what is already in the conference — mostly middle class to upper middle class programs with some upside. It seems likely that the conference will have new winners almost every season but it’s worth noting that Utah could end up standing out because of their program strength that has been developed under Kyle Whittingham. The Utes has had the most consistent success at the top level, but there are only two programs in the league that have made the CFB Playoff pre-expansion: Cincinnati and TCU. Out of the 16 teams only two of them seem doomed in the short term because of program strength and off the field weaknesses: Houston and Arizona State. The league of parity is also a league for opportunity, teams can easily go from 3 win seasons to 8 win seasons with one good transfer portal because the gap from the bottom to the top isn’t as wide going forward.
The graphic below is one of the reasons why I think Cincinnati has a better chance for a bounce back year than fans expect. Other than Texas, every single team in this graphic tells a story on how the conference played out this past season. Iowa State, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State were far and away the biggest overachievers this season when you look at the pre-season polls, and they finished 1st 2nd and 3rd in sacks allowed. Three of the best lines in the Big 12 allowed unproven QBs like Garrett Greene and Rocco Becht to flourish. On the other side of it, every team in the bottom half (non UT) performed as expected or worse than expected — especially Baylor.
It’s still early days in the portal but the entire offensive line has rallied together to return for 2024, and while the group wasn’t great this season it’s easy for Cincinnati fans to see that group improving with continuity and the Big 12 experience of this past season. While tackle depth could be an issue the strong IOL leadership group of Luke Kandra, Dartanyan Tinsley and Gavin Gerhardt should put the Bearcats in a spot for a big improvement next season.
The current senior offensive line group for the 2024 season
In addition to the IOL mentioned above, the Bearcats also have nearly a full house of senior or super senior OL with four more guys on the roster: Phillip Wilder, John Williams, Deondre Buford, and Judeo Milon. Underclassmen Ethan Green, Jonathan Harder and Evan Tengesdahl also will have a shot to prove themselves this coming season. If Cincinnati can land a decent QB in the portal and an additional lineman (preferably a tackle!) or two the Bearcats should be able to show obvious improvement in year two of the Scott Satterfield era.
