Cincinnati basketball has an identity
Wes Miller’s 2023-2024 Bearcats’ roster, while quirky, is the most talented Cincinnati basketball roster since Mick Cronin’s final season in Clifton. Miller geared up for the Big 12 in talent acquisition mode by landing a strong transfer portal haul — UK guard CJ Fredrick, Butler wing Simas Lukosius, Temple center Jamille Reynolds and the coveted Utah Valley State center Aziz Bandaogo. On paper this is a talented high-major basketball team, but out of conference results have led to some fan unrest.
“We have no identity”
A phrase echoing around the 513 of late, and one that I disagree with.
This season (left) and last season’s (right) Four Factors, presented by KenPom, are the same colors but with different shades. Talent has made the rebound percentages brighter. That bright green also show us the identity of Wes Miller’s teams — rebounding and ball security. Cincinnati has that identity and it is crystal clear.
The Bearcats have had two straight seasons with this similar profile, despite having different personnel. In fact, if you go back to his UNCG teams, Miller’s last 8 teams have crashed the offensive boards in the top third of the NCAA. His last 6 teams have been top 75 in turnover %.
To make up for the unreliable half court offense Coach Miller wants his teams to crash both boards to create a possessions advantage. Improved rebounding numbers can be directly attributed to the new frontcourt roster construction – Reynolds and Bandaogo have joined the likes of Viktor Lakhin and Daniel Skillings. Skillings emergence as an elite rebounder (168th in the country in OR%, 289th DR%) also helped these numbers, especially while Reynolds and Bandaogo were dealing with waiver issues. CBBAnalytics on/off data shows how much these specific players have elevated the rebounding numbers from last season. The theme is clear.
Regarding the backcourt roster construction, Cincinnati had zero players entering this season who had played a single minute of point guard at the D1 level. Wes has made it a point of emphasis to rein in the inexperienced Day Day Thomas and Jizzle James to limit turnovers. There’s no reason to throw inexperienced point guards into the fire when you can create more possessions with your huge advantage on the boards. Limiting their exposure to risky situations increases Cincinnati’s chance of winning basketball games while the guards get valuable reps and experience.
So what’s the issue? Why are fans complaining about a lack of identity?
Cincinnati basketball fans are not dumb. Being frustrated about identity has to mean something.
The frustration stems from a lack of clarity on lineups within our team’s identity. Fans tried to visualize the potentially awkward twin towers approach all offseason. A few short months later the team is stumbling into Big 12 play banged up with zero clarity on that approach. Some of that is explained by waiver drama with both new big men, but the coaching staff knew of these risks last spring. The reward of those risks? Waiver drama, minor injuries, and minimal exposure to important double big lineups that make Cincinnati unique. Per CBBAnalytics, Cincinnati has played ZERO minutes with Jamille Reynolds and Aziz Bandaogo on the floor at the same time, 27 minutes with Reynolds and Lakhin, and 83 minutes with Lakhin and Bandaogo. How are fans supposed to believe? We have not seen these players on the court together and we have seen the team lose its two biggest games of the season. To make things worse CJ Fredrick and Simas Lukosius have also missed time with injury.
Despite all of that, Cincinnati has had some very good small ball lineups this season with either Daniel Skillings or Simas Lukosius at the 4 next to a big man. These small sample size numbers are hard to believe in because the Bearcats have been playing a lot of smaller teams that are less talented.
An optimist can see how this Cincinnati team successfully employs small ball lineups next to a single elite rim protector like Bandaogo. Hell, they can probably see it with Lakhin or Reynolds, who are solid rim protectors in their own right. But that just brings us back to where we started. This team’s small ball and big lineups being productive are simply ideas. Only wins can turn those ideas into reality.
Speaking of wins, it is hard to see them. The Big 12 gauntlet is here. The Bearcats begin Big 12 play with 6 straight games vs. top 50 KenPom teams. The last time Cincinnati won one of those? 25 months ago against Illinois. As a fan it is hard to even envision winning a big game. There are zero gimmes left on the Bearcats’ schedule, so these big and small lineup experiments will have to be performed against elite teams. Fan outlook would be much different if the Bearcats had passed the out of conference eye test.
Squint, you might see a big lineup imposing their will on solid opponents. Or a small ball lineup flowing on offense with rim protection on defense. A win at Xavier after beating the Musketeers up on the boards. Taking the Flyers down after a deep big man rotation gave DaRon Holmes 40 minutes of hell. This alternate reality is a 13-0 Cincinnati team. There is no anxiety. Fans are not asking about the team’s identity.
The Reality? An 11-2 Cincinnati team that gave us more questions than answers.
“Does this team have an identity?”
It does. Aziz Bandaogo, Jamille Reynolds, Daniel Skillings and Viktor Lakhin rebounding. Day Day Thomas and Jizzle James taking care of the ball. Winning with this identity will be the only way to get fans to stop asking the question.
